I usually just throw out some random thoughts after Hollywood’s big show, but I decided I would join several of my blogging pals and give some meaningless predictions for this year’s Academy Awards. You could say this is an attempt to get myself excited for Sunday’s extravaganza. I’m usually hopping up and down, but my lack of enthusiasm for many of this year’s nominees and the overall lack of any suspense has me a bit….blah.
Nonetheless here we go:
BEST PICTURE
WHO WILL WIN: “Three Billboards”
WHO SHOULD WIN: “Dunkirk”
DARK HOUSE: “Get Out”
The smart money says this is a race between “Three Billboards” and “The Shape of Water”. I’m not high of Guillermo del Toro’s visually beautiful but narratively clunky love story. But I thoroughly disliked “Three Billboards” and it’s aimless, morally contradictory story. It’s been winning a lot and it will probably win again. But don’t count out the profoundly mediocre “Get Out”. Both it and “The Shape of Water” seem to have enough political messaging to cover up their significant storytelling issues. At least in the Academy’s eyes.
As for Nolan, let’s face it. Apparently he simply doesn’t make the kind of movies the Academy gives its big awards to. The brilliance of “Dunkirk” has been all but forgotten by voters.
BEST ACTOR
WHO WILL WIN: Gary Oldman (“Darkest Hour”)
WHO SHOULD WIN: Daniel Day-Lewis (“Phantom Thread”)
DARK HORSE: None (it’s in the bag)
I loved Oldman’s performance as Winston Churchill and I won’t cry if he wins. And while I liked Denzel’s performance more than most people, Day-Lewis swept me away (once again). If he wins it won’t be a “Bon voyage” award. He deserves it. But don’t worry Oldman fans. Gary has this one locked up.
BEST ACTRESS
WHO WILL WIN: Frances McDormand (“Three Billboards”)
WHO SHOULD WIN: Saoirse Ronan (“Lady Bird”
DARK HORSE: None (definitely in the bag)
McDormand was fine in “Three Billboards” despite McDonagh’s queasy writing, but I don’t quite get the adoration. For my money Ronan gave yet another fabulous performance so true in every word and expression. She won’t win (neither will anyone else). This is McDormand’s all the way.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
WHO WILL WIN: Sam Rockwell (“Three Billboards”)
WHO SHOULD WIN: Willam Dafoe (“The Florida Project”)
DARK HORSE: None (once again…)
Rockwell has won this at every turn which leaves any intrigue all but nonexistent. Again, Rockwell is fine playing a Sam Rockwell character but it’s far from a Oscar-winning performance. None of the nominated made my Top 5 for the category, but of those nominated I would go with Dafoe’s stellar work in “The Florida Project”. But he hasn’t a chance in the world.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
WHO WILL WIN: Allison Janney (“I, Tonya”)
WHO SHOULD WIN: Laurie Metcalf (“Lady Bird”)
DARK HORSE: None…zzzzzzzz
See my comments in the previous category. Janney has won everything and will win here. Metcalf will have to be content with a nomination but her intensely authentic performance deserves the statue. Love seeing Manville and Blige nominated. I would put them both ahead of Janney, but they have no shot.
BEST DIRECTOR
WHO WILL WIN: Guillermo del Toro (“The Shape of Water”)
WHO SHOULD WIN: Christopher Nolan (“Dunkirk”)
DARK HOUSE: Jordan Peele (“Get Out”)
Again, Nolan apparently doesn’t make movies the Academy loves. As proof, this is the first time he has EVER been nominated in this category. I’d love to say he would grab an upset win here by del Toro seems to be the frontrunner. I guess directing one-half of a movie well is enough to get a statue.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
WHO WILL WIN: “Call Me By Your Name”
WHO SHOULD WIN: “Molly’s Game”
DARK HORSE: “Mudbound”
I don’t really think “Mudbound” has a shot but I wanted to mention it somewhere. It certainly deserves consideration. But Aaron Sorkin’s “Molly’s Game” is still tops for me. “Logan” is a neat surprise, but if we’re honest it’s no Oscar-worthy script.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
WHO WILL WIN: “Three Billboards”
WHO SHOULD WIN: “Lady Bird”
DARK HORSE: “Get Out”
The very idea that Martin McDonagh will win a screenplay award for “Three Billboards” blows my mind. Most of what I despised about the film can be traced back to the screenplay. Yet it will win. Only slightly less mind blowing would be a “Get Out” victory. Don’t count it out. Of those nominated, I’ll be rooting for “Lady Bird”.
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE:
WHO WILL WIN: “The Shape of Water”
WHO SHOULD WIN: “Phantom Thread”
DARK HORSE: None
Not much intrigue here either. Desplat’s sweet waltzy score will win and I won’t be sad. It’s one of the best parts of the film and that isn’t a slight. I prefer Greenwood’s beautiful and elegant work, but either one is deserving.
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
WHO WILL WIN: “Blade Runner 2049”
WHO SHOULD WIN: “Blade Runner 2049”
DARK HORSE: “Dunkirk”
Will we all finally get to celebrate a long overdue Roger Deakins Oscar win? I think we will. It’s shameful that the brilliant cinematographer has never won. And as much as I love “Dunkirk” and “Mudbound”, his work in “BR2049” was the cream of the crop. And this won’t be some token win.
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
WHO WILL WIN: “War for the Planet of the Apes”
WHO SHOULD WIN: “Blade Runner 2049”
I will applaud either of these winners. But when it comes to all-around visual effects and how they effect the movie as a whole, I’m cheering for “Blade Runner 2049”.
RANDOM PREDICTIONS
- BEST COSTUME DESIGN: “Phantom Thread”
- BEST ANIMATED FEATURE: “Coco”
- BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM: “The Square”
- BEST ORIGINAL SONG: “This Is Me” (“The Greatest Showman”)
- BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE: “Faces Places”
- BEST FILM EDITING: “Dunkirk”
- BEST MAKEUP: “Darkest Hour”
- BEST SOUND MIXING: “Dunkirk”
- BEST SOUND EDITING: “Dunkirk”
I’ll be doing some live-tweeting on Sunday night. See you there!
Keith & the Movies 
Roger Deakins better win.
Talk about overdue!!!
I would say all of these are pretty good predictions! I agree with them all, right down to the sentiment. I haven’t really been blown away by anything this year, so I’m not as into the Oscars as I normally am.
A lot of my Top 10 didn’t even get a wink from the Academy. And of the ones that did very few have any chance to win. And as for the Best Picture frontrunners, I’m not sure I’ve ever been less excited. “Dunkirk” was my favorite 2017 film, but aside from technical awards it is all but forgotten.
I hope there’s gonna be more variety. I don’t want Three billboards to win everything.
I want to be wrong so bad! But it would take a major surprise to knock off any of the major category frontrunners. I hope it happens, but it doesn’t look good.
I have very little interest in the Oscars for numerous reasons but it just drives me nuts that genre films be it horror , sci-fi, fantasy , heck even superhero movies ever get a nod . No one can tell me in every year there is at least a few performances as good as anything in the drama corner. Some may say The Shape of Water is fantasy, true to a degree but the whole message within that movie is tailored made for what the Academy loves and for me , I think highly overrated . I was at least hoping Patty Jenkins would have nominated for Wonder Woman or the amazing Patrick Stewart for supporting actor in Logan . Even for my money when I look at the best actress category why not Gal Gadot . Bottom line is , they hardly ever pick from those movies but in my mind , are as predictable as 2 plus 2 is 4 .
Completely valid points throughout. Shutting out “Wonder Woman” is absurd to me. I can think of no other reason aside from it doesn’t fit into their mold of ‘Oscar-Worthy’ cinema. This year’s nominees and frontrunners shine an especially bright light on the problem. But it’s a longstanding problem. I’ve still never forgave them for not even giving “The Dark Knight” a Best Picture nomination!
Yeah I agree . There have been some good genre movies over the years ignored. I was hoping in the past after The Lord of the Rings was taken seriously it would change a bit . I’m surprised though at the snub of Nolan. I think he makes cinematic wonderful movies, for me they seem a bit cold and he doesn’t handle emotion well but at his craft as a big picture guy , he deserves a Director nod someday.
I’ve heard people share that experience with Nolan films and I can see where they are coming from. But I’ve had a much different experience. I have to say both Dunkirk and Interstellar were pretty emotional for me. And the ending of Inception gets me misty every single time I watch it!