With the 2023 summer movie season winding down, what better time to reflect on one of the most perplexing, surprising, troubling, and just downright strange summer seasons ever. Big tentpole blockbusters came and went as the always do. But this year’s batch left us with more questions than ever before as franchises floundered and big stars couldn’t push their films into profitability. But just as the movie theater experience appeared in jeopardy, a truly bizarre cultural phenomenon sent people to the theaters in droves.
So what do we make of the 2023 movie season? There’s certainly a lot to glean from the past few months and a lot to wonder about concerning the future of cinema. Perhaps it’s the cynical side of me, but a lot of what we saw isn’t all that promising. Sure, there are things to be optimistic about and some may see it as a step forward. But it’s more complex than that and some of the trends are worrisome.
For starters, the 2023 summer movie season has proved that increasing your movie’s budget most certainly doesn’t guarantee success. That’s pretty much a no-brainer, but 2023 has shown to be true like never before. This summer we saw some of the most expensive movies EVER MADE hit theaters and woefully underperform. Studios lost significant money while others had to claw just to break even. Some have been quick to celebrate, as if the dawn of a new age of discerning moviegoers had arrived. I don’t think that’s the case.
That leads to one of the more concerning aspects – people just aren’t going to the theater like they once did. This is especially true domestically. We’ve already seen this trend hurt mid-budget movies – really good films from top-tier filmmakers like Steven Spielberg, Guillermo del Toro, and Ridley Scott that simply couldn’t draw an audience. For the most part big blockbusters had remained immune. Not anymore. Turnouts, most notably here in the States, are nothing like they once were.
Some will be quick to point to the recent Barbenheimer boom as proof positive that people will come out if a movie demands it. But that phenomenon almost requires an entirely different analysis. The Barbenheimer craze might be studied for years as it reached a fever pitch before most people had laid eyes on either “Barbie” or “Oppenheimer”. It became the cool thing to embrace.
But I don’t want to downplay the mind-boggling success of “Barbie” which certainly goes beyond the rabid enthusiasm. You don’t make that kind of money without resonating with audiences. On the more skeptical side, much of the hype was due to a brilliant commercially-driven marketing campaign that treated “Barbie” more like a product than a movie. But it got people in the seats.
In many ways “Oppenheimer” is more impressive. It’s an R-rated dialogue-driven biopic about a theoretical physicist with a running time of three hours. By that description there’s no way it should be making the money it’s making. Some attribute it to riding on the coattails of “Barbie” but that’s unfair. “Oppenheimer” is actually a phenomenal film and the Christopher Nolan effect once again proves to be a very real thing.
But what of all the other blockbusters that have failed to hit their projections? Here’s some of the bigger ones:
- “The Flash”. It’s easy to forget that the earliest reactions were calling this one of DC’s very best movies. But (sadly) social media tends to drive so much of the conversation these days and people quickly turned on “The Flash”. Without question it had its baggage. But the regurgitated criticisms and the unfortunate apathy towards DC movies led to this becoming one of biggest box office bombs in recent memory. It deserved better.
- “Fast X”. The latest chapter in the Fast & Furious franchise has made over $700 million worldwide putting it on par with its previous installment. The big difference is the budget. “Fast X” cost a whopping $340 million to make not counting promotion. What hurt it most were the underwhelming domestic numbers. For some reason audiences in the States didn’t turn out the way they have in the past. Sense a trend?
- “Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny”. Disney was counting big on the fifth and final Indiana Jones adventure. While it was nowhere near as good as the first three films, it did capture their spirit. But maybe younger crowds simply have no attachment to Indy. The movie made only $358 million against a $300 million budget. It was overly long but still fun. Yet it couldn’t muster the audience that the franchise once did.
- “Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One”. Now here’s one of the biggest frustrations of the year. This much-anticipated Mission: Impossible film was an extraordinary big screen experience. But it made the mistake of coming out the week before “Barbie” and “Oppenheimer”. The film dropped 65% to $19.4 million domestically in its second weekend. You would hope people might go see it after getting their Barbenheimer fill but that hasn’t been the case. So here we have one the year’s best movies sitting at just over $454 million, well below projections.
- “Transformers: Rise of the Beasts”. Yet another big budget studio blockbuster that ultimately underperformed at the box office. “Rise of the Beasts” has made $430 million yet it currently stands as the lowest grossing installment in the Transformers franchise. It’s a good movie that’s closer to the terrific “Bumblebee” than the eye-melting Michael Bay films. Yet many didn’t give it a shot.
- “Haunted Mansion”. While it didn’t operate on a budget as big as the above films, Disney’s “Haunted Mansion” was yet another movie that flopped. Granted it wasn’t as good as the above movies and releasing in the summer rather than closer to Halloween probably wasn’t a great idea. But it seemed like a bankable title, especially for younger audiences. Yet so far it has only made $42 million since its July 28th release.
There have been a few successes (“Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3”, “Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse”, the aforementioned “Barbie” and “Oppenheimer”). But there’s no denying that studios have taken a hit this summer. Again I ask, what do we make of this? Yes, things like swollen budgets, franchise fatigue, and smaller windows before streaming have parts to play in it. But I think there is more going on.
Simply put, the big screen experience isn’t as appreciated as it once was and the numbers seem to bear it out. And this isn’t just reserved for summer spectacles. We’ve seen it during the winter months as well. It’s just more glaring during the blockbuster season where the financial losses are so pronounced. So what does it mean for the future of cinema? That continues to be the ultimate question. The optimist may say that it may usher in a new era of original ideas. The pessimist may say the clock is ticking on the big screen experience. I hope not. But as Bob Dylan so eloquently put it, “The Times, They Are a-Changin‘”.
Keith & the Movies 
I remember one time a while ago I had some tea leaves and put um in some water and read them. That water started boiling and I drank that tea then then I thought I was with Chavez Chavez in the spirit world. Fun times.
Thanks Claude…I think
I bet Mr Cruise isn’t all that happy. I do wonder if the amount of YouTube stuff about his mega-stunts was a bit off putting, should have kept the mystery until after. I felt like I’d seen the best of the movie before it even got to screen.
That’s an interesting thing to consider. Maybe don’t show quite so much next time. I still think it was the bad decision not to move the release date after “Barbenheimer” started to take off!
Yep agreed!
That’s a solid analysis. I think a huge part of the issue is that because of streaming and social media, more people are in tune with how movies are being made and written. A lot of these big failures are not just a result of bloated budgets, but very questionable writing. This should’ve been the biggest summer for movies, but it’s turned out to be one of the worst, with the exception of Barbie and Oppenheimer. The Barbenheimer phenomenon was/is a fluke. I still can’t wrap my head around how much it worked. Both movies are incredibly successful BECAUSE of each other, not in spite. I’ve never seen anything like that before.
But in a summer of mostly mediocre movies, Barbenheimer is the exception, not the rule. I think 2023 is going to be a bust for movies. The only other movie this year I see having real success is Dune: Part II, and that’s if WB doesn’t move it. Studios are putting ALL their eggs in one basket, and it’s just not working.
Thanks so much! I appreciate you taking time to read it. I’m a little more optimistic about the crop of summer movies but there is no denying how they underperformed.
I think part of the reason why many of these underperformed is that audiences I think wanted something different. Yes, I like some franchise films but I want a little bit of variety and Barbenheimer as an event did that and more. With Barbie, I was able to laugh, tear up, and be entertained by it in many ways as it gave me one of the best theatrical experiences I ever had while Oppenheimer was a much different experience even though I didn’t see it in IMAX but its visuals, high-octane technical work, and the story itself did a lot to win me over and then some.
Guardians 3 and Across the Spider-Verse were the only other blockbusters that I saw that delivered as I also watched a film by a noted auteur in Wes Anderson with Asteroid City as all 3 of those films delivered. I could probably muster one more blockbusters in the new Ninja Turtles movie and that’s it as I would prefer to watch something different and not be bombarded by these bloated films.
On to a different subject as with the recent passing of William Friedkin, it is now obvious that we’re about to embark on a period in which we’re likely to watch some of the final films of masters that we love with many of them from the New Hollywood period as I think all of the greats of the French New Wave are gone. Right now, we still have Scorsese, Spielberg, Francis Ford Coppola, Eastwood, de Palma, Ridley Scott, Paul Schrader, Malick, Polanski, and Allen as they’re the last breed of greats. We need to celebrate and support them knowing that they’re not going be around much longer. I often think about the sense of neglect and indifference Akira Kurosawa had over his last 2 films as they were barely given any notices in the U.S. as he would die five years after the release of his last film. There was also the fact that Ingmar Bergman released Saraband in 2003 and it came out in the U.S. a year later but with little buzz outside the art house community.
I’m glad that at least Friedkin got to finish his last film which will be shown next month at Venice and hopefully get a decent U.S. release though I feel sad that Allen and Polanski aren’t going to get their films shown here because of this bullshit woke culture. I do hope to see Killers of the Flower Moon on the big screen instead of waiting for it on Apple TV+ as I feel it would be the right way to honor Scorsese while I hope Malick’s next feature is worth waiting for as I don’t want him to rush it.
We must cherish those greats you mentioned. I know this sounds cliche, but there aren’t many who can lace their boots these days. The have long worked on an entirely different level and whenever we lose one it hurts my soul.
Agreed. I did see footage of William Friedkin at Venice some years ago and a filmmaker bowed down to him. That’s some fucking respect.
Wow!
I like Barbie the best 🩷
I saw Mission Impossible last week and feel like it deserves to be doing better, although $450 million isn’t chump change. Seems like it should out gross Super Mario Bros. at least. Maybe the combination of being Part 1, nearly 3 hours long, and something like number 7 in the series made it seem a little off putting.
I really do think it got swept away amid the massive Barbenheimer hype. I truly think it would have made significantly more money had it not released the week before that crazy event took over theaters.
I find this summer fascinating. Barbenheimer was lightening in a bottle, and I wonder if we’ll ever capture something like that again? I agree that Oppenheimer is a huge success story. I think the double feature craze definitely helped it, and I’m glad it’s making big numbers. I knew Barbie would be a hit. I grew up with her and love the creative team behind the film, so seeing it hit 1 billion already just makes me so happy.
I think this might have been the summer of sequel fatigue. Look how excited everyone was over original blockbusters like Barbie and Oppenheimer? That’s what I attribute to Indiana Jones, Transformers, and Fast X not hitting huge numbers.
Mission Impossible’s release date definitely hurt it. If they were smarter, they would’ve moved it. The whole “Tom Cruise saved cinema” thing from last year always rubbed me the wrong way, and I wonder if that’s also the case for others and contributed? I’m not sure.
The Flash 100% tanked due to Ezra Miller. There’s just too much to ignore with what’s going on with them. It pains me, because I LOVED them in previous films and would’ve been looking forward to The Flash otherwise.
The Haunted Mansion should’ve been a Disney+ release. I wouldn’t be surprised if it does great numbers when it hits streaming. It seems like that type of film.
On the other hand with sequels that didn’t fall to fatigue, I think Guardians being their final outing helped, as well as Into The Spider-verse just being such an amazing film that everyone wanted to see Across The Spider-verse.
Sorry for the novel lol.
Thanks for the great comments. A lot of good points there. I think what worries me that there may be more going on that franchise fatigue are original movies by big directors such as Spielberg, del Toro, Ridley Scott, etc. that people simply didn’t go see. I worry about that trend. At the same time, it’s kinda hard to deny that franchise fatigue is a real thing.