Oscar Weekend: My Picks for the 94th Academy Awards

I love Oscar weekend. I enjoy the ridiculous pageantry, the overstuffed television broadcast, and of course the focus solely on movies. And while I don’t take them too seriously, I do tend to avoid the condescending (and seemingly obligatory) dismissal of the awards which makes its way through critics circles nearly every year at this time. That’s because I do think the Oscars matter. Not so much in definitively proclaiming the ‘best’ movie of the year. But in highlighting certain movies and advancing careers.

This year I’ve had a tough time keeping myself excited for the Academy Awards. Not because I’ve lost interest or due to the nominees. But because we are already three months into 2022. It’s hard to stay focused on 2021 movies when we’re already this far into the new year. Simply put, March 27th is too long to wait.

Still, here we are two days away from Oscar night, and I have to admit my juices are beginning to flow. Suddenly I find myself looking forward to Sunday night’s big show. So in keeping with that excitement, I decided to put together my picks for some of the Academy’s big categories. Critics often get together to consider, debate and discuss. So why not join the choir. Today I’m simply sharing who I think WILL win and who I WANT to win. So let’s go.

BEST PICTURE

The Nominees:

  1. Belfast
  2. Don’t Look Up
  3. Drive My Car
  4. The Power of the Dog
  5. Dune
  6. West Side Story
  7. CODA
  8. King Richard
  9. Licorice Pizza
  10. Nightmare Alley

Who Will Win: “The Power of the Dog”

Who I Want to Win: “Dune”

For a long time this has been a one horse race with “The Power of the Dog” being the clear frontrunner. But lately “CODA” (of all movies) has been surging and now there is some real belief that the little feel-good movie could win the big prize. I’m not ruling it out, but I’m still not seeing it. I like “The Power of the Dog” but don’t feel it’s storytelling is nearly as sharp as most do. But it has a lot of push behind it – probably enough to get it across the finish line. I’d prefer a number of other nominees (“Dune”, “Belfast”, “Nightmare Alley”, “West Side Story”) but they don’t stand a chance. BY THE WAY: I can think of 20 movies I would have nominated over “Don’t Look Up” or “Licorice Pizza”. Oh well.

BEST DIRECTOR

The Nominees:

1. Kenneth Branagh (Belfast)
2. Ryusuke Hamaguchi (Drive My Car)
3. Paul Thomas Anderson (Licorice Pizza)
4. Jane Campion (The Power of the Dog)
5. Steven Spielberg (West Side Story)

Who Will Win: Jane Campion

Who I Want to Win: Kenneth Branagh

Yes, I know it’s fashionably absurd to root for Kenneth Branagh or “Belfast” is any regard. Too bad. It’s a great movie and I would love to hear it’s name called. But none of that matters. This has been and remains Campion’s category, and I don’t see anything changing on Oscar night. This one’s pretty much a lock. BY THE WAY: Where on earth is Denis Villeneuve (“Dune”)? It’s easily one of this season’s more glaring omissions.

BEST ACTOR

The Nominees:

1. Javier Bardem (Being the Ricardos)
2. Benedict Cumberbatch (The Power of the Dog)
3. Andrew Garfield (Tick, Tick…Boom!)
4. Will Smith (King Richard)
5. Denzel Washington (The Tragedy of Macbeth)

Who Will Win: Will Smith

Who I Want to Win: Denzel Washington

There was a time where I thought this was a really intriguing category. But over the last month or so Will Smith has emerged as the clear favorite. I have to say, as a luke-warm Will Smith fan, I was really impressed by his work in “King Richard” and would have no beef with him winning. But I really wish Denzel would get the statue. Unfortunately almost no one is talking about his incredible performance so it’s hard to imagine he stands a chance. Sunday will be Smith’s night. BY THE WAY: No Bradley Cooper for “Nightmare Alley”???

BEST ACTRESS

The Nominees:

1. Jessica Chastain (The Eyes of Tammy Faye)
2. Penélope Cruz (Parallel Mothers)
3. Olivia Colman (The Lost Daughter)
4. Nicole Kidman (Being the Ricardos)
5. Kristen Stewart (Spencer)

Who Will Win: Jessica Chastain

Who I Want to Win: Olivia Colman

This is a pretty stacked category. It’s one that features several really good performances in pretty good movies. Obviously K-Stew has been getting a big social media push while Cruz’s name suddenly started popping up as a potential dark horse. A part of me says never count out Kidman, but I really do think Chastain will pull it out. She was terrific in a movie that was too focused on rewriting certain bits of history. Still, Chastain didn’t miss a beat and should get the Oscar. BY THE WAY: I’m still surprised that Ruth Negga didn’t slip in for “Passing”.

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

The Nominees:

1. The Hand of God
2. Drive My Car
3. Flee
4. The Worst Person in the World
5. Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom

Who Will Win: Drive My Car

Who I Want to Win: The Worst Person in the World

This is a wild category and one noted by some pretty stiff omissions. Regardless, it’s hard to see anything else winning other than “Drive My Car”. After all, it is the only nominee that’s also nominated for Best Picture. In fairness, I haven’t seen “Lucana”, but the other four make for an interesting group. Still, the winner here is pretty easy to predict. BY THE WAY: How did the Academy not even nominate Asghar Farhadi’s “A Hero”? Talk about mind-boggling.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

The Nominees:

1. Encanto
2. Flee
3. Luca
4. The Mitchells vs. the Machines
5. Raya and the Last Dragon

Who Will Win: Encanto

Who I Want to Win: The Mitchells vs. the Machines

Another interesting category. I personally loved “The Mitchells vs. the Machines” and “Raya and the Last Dragon”. But boy does Oscar love Pixar so it’s hard to bet against them. I can’t see “Encanto” losing. BY THE WAY: I remain an animated movie weakling so don’t put much value on anything I have to offer to this category.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

The Nominees:

1. Ciarán Hinds (Belfast)
2. Troy Kotsur (CODA)
3. Jesse Plemons (The Power of the Dog)
4. J.K. Simmons (Being the Ricardos)
5. Kodi Smit-McPhee (The Power of the Dog)

Who Will Win: Troy Kotsur

Who I Want to Win: Troy Kotsur

A fun category but also one of the most sure-things come Oscar night. Troy Kotsur has been on an amazing streak this awards season, and it’s hard to see anything derailing him leading up to his last stop. A part of me would love to see Hinds win. He gives such a wonderful performance in “Belfast”. But no one is stopping Kotsur. He’ll win and it will be one of the most memorable moments of the night. BY THE WAY: I like Jesse Plemons. But his nomination here is such an odd one. It’s a solid performance but he’s given very little to do. I would have much rather seen someone like Ben Affleck for “The Tender Bar”.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

The Nominees:

1. Jessie Buckley (The Lost Daughter)
2. Ariana DeBose (West Side Story)
3. Judi Dench (Belfast)
4. Kirsten Dunst (The Power of the Dog)
5. Aunjanue Ellis (King Richard)

Who Will Win: Ariana DeBose

Who I Want to Win: Caitriona Balfe (Oh wait…)

This category is a mix of of excitement and utter bewilderment. Buckley was such a nice surprise and Ellis was quite good. But no one is beating DeBose. She was magical in “West Side Story” and she has had this category locked up since well before the nominees were announced. BY THE WAY: The Caitriona Balfe snub is the most baffling and egregious of the year. She was incredible in “Belfast” and had been nominated in nearly every award stop leading up the Oscars. I have no idea how the Academy dropped the ball this badly.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

The Nominees:

1. Belfast
2. Don’t Look Up
3. King Richard
4. Licorice Pizza
5. The Worst Person in the World

Who Will Win: Belfast

Who I Want to Win: Belfast

This category is a complete toss-up. I can pick apart the scripts for nearly every one of these nominees. But I think Kenneth Branagh’s “Belfast” screenplay is a near perfect mix of heart, soul, and humor. I think it’ll win, but the near irrational pushback to that film in some circles may point to a more fashionable choice. Still, I’m sticking with “Belfast”. BY THE WAY: How “Licorice Pizza” and “Don’t Look Up” found their way into this category is beyond me. Perhaps certain names do carry more weight during awards season.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

The Nominees:

1. CODA
2. Drive My Car
3. Dune
4. The Lost Daughter
5. The Power of the Dog

Who Will Win: CODA

Who I want to Win: Dune

Here’s another one that could go a number of ways. While I think the script is the one thing that holds “The Power of the Dog” back, I still believe it has a good shot at winning this category. But the recent push “CODA” has received makes me lean towards it, and I wouldn’t be upset if it wins. I do think people are overlooking “Dune” and how it’s screenplay brought together its vast and sweeping story. But in a category this stacked, it’s understandable why it wouldn’t win. BY THE WAY: Even in a crammed group, it’s really a shame that Tony Kushner wasn’t nominated for “West Side Story”.

So there are a few of my picks for Sunday night‘s big show. I’d love to hear what you agree or disagree with. What would be your choices for the categories mentioned above? Let me hear from you.

First Glance: “Men”

Independent film distributor extraordinaire A24 teams with writer-directer Alex Garland (“Ex Machina”, “Annihilation”) in the new horror thriller “Men”. The film stars the wonderful (and now Oscar-nominated) Jessie Buckley and Rory Kinnear. A24 dropped a killer teaser a month or so ago and now have released the first official trailer. To no surprise this looks really good and you can see Garland’s fingerprints all over it.

In “Men” Buckley plays Harper, a grieving woman who retreats to English countryside following the tragic death of her husband (Paapa Essiedu). Her quiet escape is quickly interrupted by a number of men from the village (many played by Kinnear). The images are mysterious and often unsettling, giving us a taste of the horrors to come but also leaving much to our imagination. One thing’s for sure, there will be more going on under the surface that what the trailer shows us. I can’t wait.

“Men” hits theaters May 20th. Check out the trailer below and let me know if you’ll be seeing it or taking a pass.

REVIEW: “Topside” (2022)

For New Yorkers, the new film “Topside” may cover some pretty familiar ground. But this cutting drama from the filmmaking duo of Celine Held and Logan George has a lot for the rest of us to chew on and it should open the eyes and touch the hearts of anyone with a soul. Held and George both co-wrote and co-directed this hard-hitting indie with Held also starring in one of the film’s two lead roles.

“Topside” actually premiered way back in 2020 at the Venice Film Festival and now is finally set for its release here in the States. The movie brings to mind a number of other terrific independent films from the past several years. It’s kinda like “Beasts of the Southern Wild” but minus the fantasy element. It’s a bit like “Room” but without the hostage angle. Yet it’s also very much its own thing, and it has a powerful real-world story to tell.

The movie opens with a quote that stayed in the back of my mind for the duration of the movie. It’s from Jennifer Toth’s 1993 book “The Mole People: Life In The Tunnels Beneath New York City”. It reads “J.C. told me initially that his community had no children. After a moment he added, ‘We have adults as young as five.’” It doesn’t take long for the quote’s relevance to be realized.

Image Courtesy of Vertical Entertainment

Much of the film’s first act is spent on setting up its world. Held and George do a great job visualizing the subterranean homeless community living deep underneath the concrete jungle of New York City. In a dark deserted dead-end section of the subway system, a small group has made homes out of shipping pallets, sheets of tin, and tarp. It’s in this world where we meet 5-year-old Little (played by the remarkable young actress Zhaila Farmer).

“Topside” is mostly told from Little’s unique perspective. Early on we watch her innocently soaking up the few rays of sun beaming through a couple of gaps in the concrete above. It’s all she’s ever seen of the outside world. She’s never been “topside”. Her mother Nikki (wonderfully played by Held) tells her she has to wait for her wings to grow. It’s one of several made-up stories Nikki tells her daughter in order to shield her from their real-life situation.

Nikki is very well aware of their condition. She slips away while Little sleeps and goes topside to get what money and supplies she can. We get the sense that Nikki’s time above is more complicated than she lets on, but it isn’t until later that the film really shows where desperation has led this single mother. While Nikki is gone, Little is looked after by a fellow dweller named John (Fatlip). He’s a mysterious character but buried within his short temper is genuine concern for Little.

While Nikki and Little seem settled into their circumstances, we know that it’s doomed. Glimpses of trespassing notices and warnings to evacuate go unheeded by the community and sets up what’s to come. And it comes to a head early one morning when a group of city workers surprise the community with strict orders to leave. Knowing she’ll loose her daughter to Social Services if they’re caught, Nikki takes Little and runs.

Image Courtesy of Vertical Entertainment

As everything she has told her daughter about the topside crumbles under the weight of reality, Nikki frantically scrambles to shield and protect Little despite having no money, no food, and no place to go. In the meantime Nikki’s above-ground connections begin painting a clearer picture of this loving yet troubled mother. Interestingly, the movie doesn’t get lost in Nikki’s backstory or explaining how she ended up in the situation she’s in. It stays fully focused in the present. That willingness to stay centered in the here-and-now is a key reason the story packs such a punch.

As the mother and daughter flee, the movie takes a heart-shattering turn. Nikki escapes topside, exposing Little to the real world for the very first time. The young child’s fear is palpable as she’s overwhelmed by the city’s blinding lights and assaultive collection of sounds. DP Lowell A. Meyer’s visceral camerawork is constantly shooting from the little girl’s point-of-view, conveying a real sense of terror and anxiety. It’s harrowing stuff.

“Topside” embodies everything I love about independent cinema. It tells a fiercely intimate story without any obligations to studio guidelines or genre expectations. It features an unflinching authenticity that comes through the fantastic cinematography, the moving script, its crisp editing, and two phenomenal performances from Held and Farmer. At times it plays like a hellish thriller. But that’s a testament to the film’s ability to draw us closer to the uncomfortable themes it’s dealing with. And while it can be troubling and hard to watch, it’s also honest and straightforward, which is exactly what this kind of material needs. “Topside” premieres Friday in select theaters and on VOD.

VERDICT – 4.5 STARS

First Glance: “Where the Crawdads Sing”

Coming off of her stellar performance in “Fresh”, Daisy Edgar-Jones stars in “Where the Crawdads Sing”. The small town drama/thriller is an adaptation of the best selling 2018 novel by Delia Owens and sees Edgar-Jones given a meaty role as a resilient young woman from the North Carolina marshes. The film is directed by Olivia Newton and written for the screen by Lucy Alibar who co-wrote 2012’s superb “Beasts of the Southern Wild”.

Edgar-Jones plays Kya. Abandoned as a child and shunned by most of the local townsfolk, Kya mostly survived in the marsh on her own. But when a young man she was involved with suddenly ends up dead, she becomes the chief suspect in what festers into a witch hunt. The cast also includes the always terrific David Strathairn who instantly elevates any movie he’s in. I like the setting and I like the premise. I also like what I’ve seen of Edgar-Jones, and I’m anxious to see what she does with this role.

“Where the Crawdads Sing” opens in theaters on July 15th. Check out the trailer below and let me know if you’ll be seeing it and taking a pass.

REVIEW: “The Sky is Everywhere” (2022)

(CLICK HERE to read my full review in the Arkansas Democrat-Gazette)

At first glance, “The Sky is Everywhere” looks like your standard-issue teen romantic drama or YA novel-inspired weepy. Its trailer drips with tropes and character types. And even the story itself (based on a 2010 young adult novel written by Jandy Nelson) seems custom-made for this kind of soapy genre treatment.

But if you take a deeper look, you’ll find several reasons to be intrigued by this movie which just premiered on AppleTV+. First, there’s the unexpected visual touches which interrupt the more routine bits and hint at something fresh and original. Second, it comes from director Josephine Decker whose last two features, “Madeline’s Madeline” and “Shirley”, were both unique and audacious projects. And third, it’s co-produced by A24, a respected distributor with a well-established history of backing smart and inspired independent films.

“The Sky is Everywhere” joins the parade of recent movies dealing with the heavy and deeply human subject of grief. Here it focuses on the loss of a sibling from a teenage girl’s perspective. Grace Kaufman plays Lennie Walker, a bright and talented high school senior with a love for music and big plans for her future. Everything was looking up for Lennie. She was First Chair in her school’s honor band, and her dream of being accepted into the Juilliard School in New York City seemed within grasp.

Image Courtesy of Apple TV+

But then tragedy struck. While rehearsing the role of Juliet for an upcoming stage production, Lennie’s outgoing older sister Bailey (Havana Rose Liu) suddenly collapsed and died instantly from a fatal arrhythmia. Lennie was shattered. She and her sister were intensely close. They shared the same room, the same books, and (as Lennie puts it) “the same thoughts at the same moments“. They were inseparable.

The movie begins a short time after Bailey’s death. Overwhelmed by grief, Lennie has had a hard time picking up the pieces, and she’s struggling to hold her life together. She finds herself constantly calling Bailey’s phone just to hear her voicemail. She leaves Bailey’s clothes scattered around their room just to feel as though her sister is still there. There’s no more music in her heart; no more dreams of the future. For Lennie, time just stopped when her sister died. “I lost the one person on earth who understood me.“

Early on, Decker and Nelson (who wrote the screenplay) lean on narration to fill in the details of Bailey’s death and on Lennie’s fruitless attempts at coping. Voiceover can be tricky, but here it works as a nice introduction. It also moves the story to the place Decker and Nelson are most interested in examining – a critical juncture in the lead character’s life where the choices she makes will forever impact her future, yet an intense and consuming pain keeps her anchored to the past.

From there, Decker puts a lot of effort into developing this tight-knit world Lennie exists in. Much of it comes through the eclectic blend of side characters, each affecting Lennie’s life in different ways as she navigates her various stages of grief. In terms of family, there’s Lennie’s grandmother (Cherry Jones) and her Uncle Big (Jason Segel). “Gram” is well-meaning but a bit aggressive in her insistence that Lennie gets on with her life. Uncle Big is like a good-hearted reject from a hippie commune – puffing weed, studying bugs and occasionally adding a fatherly presence.

On the less convincing side is Lennie’s best friend Sarah (Ji-young Yoo) who doesn’t get the time or attention she needs to develop. As a result, her relationship with Lennie never feels the slightest bit authentic. And I could’ve done without Rachel (Julia Schlaepfer), the obligatory high school ‘mean girl’ and Lennie’s arch rival in band class. She’s more of a thinly sketched plot device than a real person.

Image Courtesy of Apple TV+

But the two most important supporting players are Toby (Pico Alexander) and Joe (Jacques Colimon). Both are potential love interests who represent two very different sides of Lennie. Toby (Pico Alexander) was the love of her sister‘s life. And while he and Lennie never got along, their shared grief and mutual heartache gives them a special bond. Joe is charismatic and full of energy. He looks at life the way Lennie once did – the way she hopes to again one day.

These characters fill out Lennie’s world, but Decker’s camera does a better job making us feel a part of it. Take the way she shoots the rustic country home Lennie shares with Gram and Big – surrounding it with a colorful array of rose bushes and towering California redwoods. Or the way we’re pulled inside Lennie’s head with these vibrant fantasy-like flourishes that range from corny to surprisingly poignant.

But the camera can only do so much, and the story begins to unravel the further it goes. It’s no fault of Kaufman who puts the movie on her back and carries it the best she can. But the supporting cast can’t match her, namely Alexander and Colimon who struggle when it comes to showing stronger emotion. And by the third act the movie is struggling too, knee-deep in cheese and unable to see its early potential through to the end. “The Sky is Everywhere” is now streaming on Apple TV+.

VERDICT – 2.5 STARS

REVIEW: “Windfall” (2022)

Now here’s an interesting trio: Jason Segel, Lily Collins, and Jesse Plemons. The three come together in the Charlie McDowell directed “Windfall”, a new thriller that premiered this past weekend on Netflix. Written for the screen by Justin Lader and Andrew Kevin Walker, “Windfall” is a typical COVID-19 era production – the tiny cast, the single location setting, etc. But like several of these films, “Windfall” starts strong but cant keep its momentum. It runs out of steam in the middle before picking it up in the final 15 minutes.

The movie opens with a man (Segel) lounging outside of a secluded vacation home that’s nestled among a quiet sun-soaked orange orchard. A long swimming pool stretches across the cozy back patio; beautiful mountains are painted across the horizon. He sits, enjoying the view and a big glass of orange juice. He strolls through the orchard; he relaxes by the pool. And then things get weird.

The more we watch this guy the clearer it becomes that he doesn’t belong in this house. He slings his glass across the back yard without a care. He pees in the shower. He wipes his finger prints off of the door knobs. As you might have guessed, he’s actually robbing the place. But just as he’s about to split, he’s caught by surprise when a vehicle pulls up outside. It’s the home’s owner – a billionaire tech company CEO (Plemons) and his wife (Collins). The burglar attempts to slip out unnoticed, but he’s spotted leading to the film’s central tension.

Image Courtesy of Netflix

The remainder of the movie sticks with the three on the property as the borderline inept robber holds the well-to-do couple hostage while trying to figure a way out of his mess. Along the way we get to know these three dramatically different people to varying degrees (interestingly, none of them are ever given names). The robber remains mostly a mystery, and for better of worse his identity and his motivations remained veiled. The wife seems to love her pampered and privileged life. But over time, as layers of her character are peeled back, there’s another side to her that eventually comes to the surface.

That leaves the pompous, self-absorbed, and condescending CEO. He’s the kind of guy whose mug is plastered on the covers of magazines like “Wealth” and “Front & Center” which he mounts on the wall of his vacation home just so he never forgets his “importance”. He’s clearly the movie’s villain, and he’s clearly who McDowell wants us to hate. He also checks off many of the boxes for the kind of social commentary the movie tries to speak on.

So far so good, but after the introductions McDowell has a hard time keeping up the energy. The movie sort of sits in neutral, waiting for the inevitable ending which you can kinda see coming if you watch close enough. But it’s the slow build towards that ending that holds “Windfall” back. The performances are good as Segel, Collins, and Plemons make the most of what they’re given. But the commentary is uninspired and barely explored. And the vague hints of tension aren’t enough to make this throwback thriller as good as it could have been. “Windfall” is now streaming on Netflix.

VERDICT – 2.5 STARS